Rate Lock Advisory

Tuesday, June 18th

Tuesday’s bond market has opened in positive territory following favorable consumer spending data. Stocks are showing modest gains of 36 points in the Dow and 8 points in the Nasdaq. The bond market is currently up 7/32 (4.25%), which should improve this morning’s mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

7/32


Bonds


30 yr - 4.25%

36


Dow


38,814

8


NASDAQ


17,865

Mortgage Rate Trend

Trailing 90 Days - National Average

  • 30 Year Fixed
  • 15 Year Fixed
  • 5/1 ARM

Indexes Affecting Rate Lock

High


Positive


Retail Sales

This morning’s big economic release was May's Retail Sales report at 8:30 AM ET that revealed consumer spent less last month than many had expected. Overall sales rose 0.1% when they were expected to rise 0.3%. Also, a secondary reading in the report that excludes more costly and volatile auto transactions slipped 0.1%, falling short of the 0.2% increase that was expected. And in a bit of more good news, April’s numbers were revised lower, indicating sales were softer than thought over the past two months.

Medium


Negative


Industrial Production

Also posted this morning, but at 9:15 AM ET, was May's Industrial Production report. It showed a 0.9% jump in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities. Since forecasts had production rising only 0.4%, the report is a sign that manufacturing activity is stronger than predicted. Accordingly, we have to label the report bad news for bonds and mortgage rates. Fortunately, the sales data draws much more attention and is having a noticeably stronger influence on this morning’s rates than this manufacturing report.

Medium


Unknown


Treasury Auctions (5,7,10,20,30 year)

The first of this afternoon’s events will be the results announcement of today’s 20-year Treasury Bond auction at 1:00 PM ET. A strong demand for the securities could help improve bonds and lead to slightly lower mortgage rates. Both of last week’s auctions drew decent interest from investors, leaving us optimistic that this week’s sale may follow suit. However, if this week’s sale doesn’t go as well as those did, we could see bonds weaken and mortgage rates move higher late in the day.

Medium


Unknown


Fed Talk

Lastly, Federal Reserve Board member Adriana Kugler is speaking early this afternoon in Washington DC. The topic of her discussion is listed as Economic Outlook and Monetary Policy. Market traders will be listening for any surprises. If her words do affect rates, it will do so during early-to-midafternoon trading today.

Low


Neutral


Holiday Schedule

Tomorrow doesn’t have anything set for release that we need to be concerned about. The financial markets will be closed for the Juneteenth Holiday. For those lenders that are open for business tomorrow, they will likely use today’s afternoon rates or may opt to delay rate locks until Thursday’s pricing comes out. Since there will be no economic news releases and the markets are closed, we will not be posting an update to this report tomorrow.

Float / Lock Recommendation

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.